Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.008552 0.009608 0.010766 0.012134 0.013711 0.015478 0.017615
2025-04-27 0.007068 0.008530 0.010276 0.012530 0.015390 0.018928 0.023689
2025-05-04 0.006110 0.007722 0.009756 0.012543 0.016315 0.021318 0.028582
2025-05-11 0.005470 0.007172 0.009417 0.012645 0.017257 0.023742 0.033804
2025-05-18 0.004904 0.006627 0.008984 0.012514 0.017791 0.025600 0.038435
2025-05-25 0.004522 0.006278 0.008761 0.012621 0.018641 0.027980 0.044206
2025-06-01 0.004144 0.005890 0.008429 0.012506 0.019108 0.029795 0.049318
2025-06-08 0.003746 0.005429 0.007938 0.012077 0.019001 0.030632 0.052843
2025-06-15 0.003514 0.005195 0.007763 0.012122 0.019660 0.032822 0.059171
2025-06-22 0.003398 0.005127 0.007835 0.012570 0.021050 0.036476 0.068960
2025-06-29 0.003155 0.004836 0.007523 0.012330 0.021182 0.037823 0.074337
2025-07-06 0.002932 0.004560 0.007209 0.012051 0.021202 0.038945 0.079429
2025-07-13 0.002756 0.004358 0.007018 0.012000 0.021700 0.041197 0.087781
2025-07-20 0.002668 0.004296 0.007065 0.012395 0.023135 0.045636 0.102381
2025-07-27 0.002528 0.004134 0.006919 0.012408 0.023793 0.048518 0.113895
2025-08-03 0.002415 0.004009 0.006825 0.012508 0.024643 0.051968 0.127796
2025-08-10 0.002280 0.003835 0.006628 0.012378 0.024975 0.054265 0.139155
2025-08-17 0.002188 0.003730 0.006551 0.012484 0.025842 0.057996 0.155733
2025-08-24 0.002076 0.003582 0.006378 0.012371 0.026191 0.060499 0.169338
2025-08-31 0.001937 0.003374 0.006073 0.011948 0.025758 0.060905 0.176378
2025-09-07 0.001861 0.003281 0.005988 0.011992 0.026455 0.064454 0.195073
2025-09-14 0.001834 0.003277 0.006079 0.012434 0.028200 0.071239 0.227612
2025-09-21 0.001738 0.003135 0.005879 0.012197 0.028183 0.072979 0.242069